Elective Surgery Recovery: How and When the Restart will Occur
Over the past several weeks our team at Kinsella Group has been speaking with medical contract manufacturing owners and executives to garner their thoughts on when, how and supply chain impact of the anticipated elective surgery recovery. We found that our insights mirrored those shared on a recent webinar hosted by Robin Young, founder and president of Orthopedics This Week.
Today, approximately 22 states have already re-started some degree of elective procedures (1) and this number is expected to grow to over 50% by the end of May; 75% by mid-June; and nearly back to 100% by mid-July.
Another source has projected a return to 80% normal levels (pre-covid-19 levels) for Q3 2020 and continued strong demand in Q4 2020, assuming no second wave of the virus.
Recognizing that these predictions vary state-by-state and will change as Covid-19 hotspots emerge, we find these forecasts particularly encouraging for contract manufacturers of implants, instruments, cases, trays and related products.
Nonetheless, the old adage: “Hope for the best, but plan for the worst” is still good advice during these uncertain times. As reactivation of furloughed employees begins, contract manufacturers must begin estimating how much of their new orders represent sustainable growth versus a one-time bolus of inventory replenishment.
Anticipation of this new reality will cause many contract manufacturers to review and rethink their end-games – is now a good time to sell the business or is now a good time to double-down and expand? In either case Kinsella Group is here to help you find the best way to execute your strategy – to help you sell your business for the maximum value or help you find the right strategic assets to successfully expand your operations.
In summary, the widespread disruption the pandemic has caused has also brought with it an unprecedented number of new opportunities. There is no better time than now to review your long-term strategies and portfolio and proceed with an eye toward the new reality and what it could mean for your business.